Last Friday, the quake of 8.9 Richter scale that devastated the northeast Giappne has waved the skyscrapers of Tokyo a few moments before the bag shut , however, influencing the performance. Sure, the Nikkei index futures on lost three points, but despite not yet know the tsunami, the construction sector already made quite a leap high, with the actions of some of the most construction companies hit that recorded to over thirty percent. When
Tokyo closed and the news from Japan have spread throughout the world, stock markets have begun to behave schizophrenic, with Wall Street, as a matter of good last time zone, which observed that even a appreciation of the yen. The reason? Capital Japanese - ie yen in fact - that go home for the reconstruction .
And just to complicate the overall picture, the price of oil fell all markets while that of gas rose . For the first, concern over the setback of the economy of Japan, the third largest consumer in the case the second, on the contrary, it is expected that Japan will use them more likely to compensate for the reduction of nuclear energy available.
The unpredictable and cynical stock price, however, reveals at least two truths .
First : paper economy (read " finance) and real economy are interlaced through thousands of links to the most inscrutable. According
: the human and social disaster coupling earthquake-tsunami could have unexpected results , the medium to long term, for the Japanese economy reeling and the global whole. In
fourth quarter of 2010, the GDP of the Rising Sun had recorded a contraction of 1, 3 percent . Today, many analysts believe the boom (re) construction trainer as Japan's economy was already in the aftermath of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Chinese growth, in short, with a difference. Wall
addition, construction and infrastructure, although the smell of bubble, housing demand is still driven by a multitude of pressure to improve their standard of living. In Japan instead, with the violence of nature , unfolds the capital: the destruction becomes opportunity for a new process of accumulation and may appear after all, a few eye capitalist, a good news.
Nell ' immediate, it is expected, however, a contraction of the economy . Some factories are closed, the reduced production the slow communications. An ironic fate for the inventors of the Toyota of just-in-time , the idea that to accede to the demands of a fickle market and finished, we should not keep goods in stock , but to circulate it to the maximum speed and efficiency to get there, where there is demand before and better than others.
Today there is no market for circulation, and if there were, it would not be anywhere. We must lick their wounds and then, slowly, again. Reconstruct, in fact.
Maybe some stores' Fuller would serve to counter another emergency already see that. And here the effects are global . The destruction, especially the tsunami , has dealt a severe blow to production of rice, of which Japan is one of the largest consumers worldwide (9 million tonnes ). Finite stocks, Tokyo will import massively, giving further impetus to the price of commodities and to ' food inflation, children of global warming and global speculation.
is because of this economic link earthquake that rhymes with intifada, tsunami with bread riots.
is said, in chaos theory, that the fluttering of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can trigger a hurricane in Japan. Today, in the opposite direction, a earthquake in northeastern Japan can make a boat landing African migrants in Lampedusa .
Gabriele Battaglia
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